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“The Mad Professor” Starting Pitchers: ADP Gems? Dumpster Dives?

Well, I covered some of this in my earlier rankings of SP.  In general, there is a lot of SP value still available at the end of 10-team drafts.  It’s thinner if you are filling bigger rosters or have larger leagues.  I looked at several sources for ADP.  Fantasypros.com is the most efficient source because it calculates a composite ADP based on ADPs in the following leagues:

  • ESPN
  • NFBC
  • CBS
  • Yahoo!
  • RTS
  • FT

That’s a pretty good sampling of fantasy sources.  So, no point trying to reinvent the wheel.

This will be a shorter column that usual because 1) as I said at the beginning, I touched upon this in my SP rankings and 2) I’m still aching from the first MLFS staff snake draft.  “Snake: is an appropriate reference in more ways than one.  This was a fast draft—12 teams, 23 players, 65 minutes.  These guys know what they are doing.  I’m not thrilled with my team.  Got picked in several rounds by the guy ahead of me.  OK.  No sour grapes…

 

ADP players who are overlooked?

To figure out who a “gem” is, we need to define our terms.  Let’s assume that we have the usual 5×5, 23 player roster with 14 batters and 9 P.  No bench (for simplicity’s sake).  In a 10 team league, the draft is over at #230.  In a 12-team league, it’s over at 254.  So, let’s see who is still available between 230 and 254 and a bit beyond:

 

Pitchers Overall Player (Team) AVG
92 234 Brad Peacock (HOU – SP,RP) 246
93 235 Ervin Santana (MIN – SP) 249.3
94 236 Lucas Giolito (CWS – SP) 236.6
95 237 Dellin Betances (NYY – RP) 248.3
96 240 Tanner Roark (WSH – SP) 250.8
97 243 Patrick Corbin (ARI – SP) 256.3
98 247 Michael Wacha (STL – SP) 267.2
99 249 Sean Manaea (OAK – SP) 251.2
100 252 David Robertson (NYY – RP) 270.2
101 253 Jordan Montgomery (NYY – SP) 269.2
102 255 J.A. Happ (TOR – SP) 263.7
103 257 Felix Hernandez (SEA – SP) 269.2
104 260 Chad Green (NYY – RP) 269.8
105 262 Tyler Chatwood (CHC – SP,RP) 268.8
106 263 Alexander Reyes (STL – SP) 263
107 265 Zach Britton (BAL – RP) DL60 271.2
108 268 Luke Gregerson (STL – RP) 278
109 269 Chris Devenski (HOU – RP) 277.8
110 278 Zach Davies (MIL – SP) 281.5
111 285 Alexander Claudio (TEX – RP) 281.3
112 287 Addison Reed (MIN – RP) 284
113 288 Luiz Gohara (ATL – SP) 288.8

 

Guys I would not leave in the free agent pool

In terms of potential starters, there is profit to be made here.  Brad Peacock on Houston is a great source of K and a potential source of at least QS if he makes the starting rotation.  Same goes for his teammate, Chris Devenski.  In a league that uses wins and does not use holds, these guys may not be particularly valuable, but they will be a source of K.

Corbin, Wacha, Manaea and Montgomery all have the change to start.  Corbin has become better over time and, with humidor installed in Arizona, could be a sneaky source of QS.  Wacha has never lived up to his potential.  But, he’d be solid as your last starter.  Manaea and Montgomery are young SP who will absolutely offer profit at the end of a draft.

If you operate with keepers or in a dynasty format, Gohara and Reyes are definitely worth your last buck or parking on your bench as long term investments.

Claudio, Betances and Robertson are all great sources of K and potential sources of saves.  Their greatest challenge this year is to find enough late inning room in their respective bullpens to accumulate holds, saves and K.  In this regard, Betances and Robertson will compete for the same space in New York. Claudio’s stuff is closer worthy and he gets batters to swing.  He’s a solid end-game investment.

 

Looking Forward

Of course, your approach to these players depends on how your draft went.  In general, these are quality players.  But, if you already grabbed better ones, you won’t miss these guys.  The most important lesson is that there is no need to panic regarding SP.  There will be value at the end of your draft!

It’s nearly Pi Day and the Ides of March.  Opening Day is less than a month away.  As promised this is what will be the shortest column I write all year. Best wishes as you head into your fantasy drafts

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Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join host Corey D Roberts and Bilal Chaudry live on Sunday March 11th, 2018 from [8:20]-9:45pm EST for episode #105 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. This is our kick off show for the new 2018 fantasy baseball season. This is our mock draft review special for the 2018 season. MLFS writers, and legacy league owners will be guests for 5 minutes to discuss their strategy.

Unrepentant Red Sox fan and all things Boston. Deflategate was a joke. Boston Latin School is awesome. Harvard and Johns Hopkins alma maters... Besides that... Stanley D. and Nikki Waxberg Professor of Politics and Law at Washington and Lee University. Wrote for Ron Shandler's Shandler Park for two summers and have been on board with MLFS since 2011. Been at Washington and Lee since 1990 with a brief hiatus (2010-2013) in the Middle East. Currently developing that last word in Fantasy Baseball analysis. Married to Flor, Dad to William and Alex, and adopted daughter Reem. Soon to be father and law to Meaghann. Alpha male to the world's super-pup, Humphrey. Life is not bad.

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