Connect with us

Baseball Writers

“Seventh Nevin” MiLB Outfield ADP Draft Gems – Part 1

I have never been a fan of February drafts. I mean, sure, it’s great to get a team early, get into the league, and immediately begin making trades or squawking on the message board about how great your thirteenth round pick was. Or better, what value you landed in your final five picks.

But … it’s February. There’s still snow covering a quarter of the United States. Pitchers and catchers barely reported. In 2018, 100+ free agents were still wearing sandwich board signs reading something like:

  • Former Cy Young Award Winner – Can Still Pitch With Nastiness

    OR

  • Professional Masher – 38 Bombs Was Just the Beginning

It worked for Samuel Nix. LOL. But I digress.

In all seriousness, the Free Agent Freeze of 2018 (rightfully so, in this writer’s opinion, but that’s another article) did lead to one of the more difficult aspects in drafting for fantasy, right? Drafting a player who has talent, is the *right* age, but has not yet signed a contract. Because not knowing where super-late signings J.D. Martinez (BOS) was going to hit or where Jake Arrieta (PHI) will pitch – could that really impact their value? In some cases, I would argue absolutely.

But I would submit to you that the most difficult aspect in fantasy drafting is knowing when to pounce on that minor league player you know with all certainty (barring injury, trade, or divine intervention) will make his Major League debut this summer. Or perhaps as early as spring, just as soon as enough calendar has elapsed such that at the season’s conclusion, the player still has less than a full year of service time accrued. This is also known as the “Kris Bryant strategy.”

We are going to spend the next two weeks looking for Average Draft Position (ADP) Gems for minor league outfielders that were selected in fantasy drafts as of March 12, 2018. But we will begin our journey with my own Major League Fantasy Sports Staff experience just this past Sunday, March 11, 2018.

All queued up and ready to go (literally, I had 50 players in my queue), the draft began promptly at 7:00 PM EDT. In our MLFS Staff 12-team Mock Draft, I was positioned at #5 in the odd rounds and #8 in the even rounds. Not overly bad positioning, but Mike Trout (LAA) – Bryce Harper (WAS) – Jose Altuve (HOU) – Nolan Arenado (COL) were all gone in about 45 seconds. My immediate thought: “Is it too soon for Ronald Acuna (ATL)?” Realizing I am a writer on this very site and wanting to impress my fellow MLFS staff-mates, I opted for Trea Turner (WAS). Power, speed, average, potential for positional flexibility … checks so many boxes, and if we do end up playing out this league, Turner helps in many ways.

The Draft Clock was set to 30 seconds and very few picks even used ten of those seconds. Picks were flying off the board. (For the record, we completed a 12-team, 27-round draft in 62 minutes. That’s an average of 5.22 picks per minute which is pretty impressive. Well done MLFS staff!)

I had scarcely a moment to re-review my own Draft Now article featuring the aforementioned Acuna. Here’s a quick excerpt from that article on drafting Acuna:

  • In a 12-team new/ re-draft league, I’m targeting him in the 8th round (puts him around the 27th/28th OF drafted).
  • In a Keeper League, maybe even sooner. At 20-years-young, you are truly looking at your CF for the next decade. (If your keeper rules allow you to hang on to a player that long.)

But sometimes we outsmart ourselves. Or as a good friend puts it when shooting pool, “Think long, think wrong.” I ended up drafting the following:

Round 2 (20 overall): SP Corey Kluber (CLE)
Round 3 (29): SP Carlos Carrasco (CLE)
Round 4 (44): OF Christian Yelich (MIL)
Round 5 (53): 1B/OF Rhys Hoskins (PHI)
Round 6 (68): C/1B Buster Posey (SFO)

Round 7 (77): with 22 outfielders off the board (and remembering my own advice), I had Acuna at the top of my queue. And then I drafted Domingo Santana (MIL).

Each round thereafter, Acuna was number one in my queue and I ended up with a different pick, round after round, ignoring my own advice. Finally, Bilal put me out of my misery by drafting Acuna in Round 14 (160).

Looking back, the honest assessment is I got caught up in a vortex of contributing factors:

  1. Wanting to look good for management.
    Don’t do that … just be yourself! Always easier said than done, right?!
  2. Straying from your core gameplan.
    Why make a plan if you’re not going to stick with it? (There are options for several other plans, but your primary plan was constructed with purpose.)
  3. Too much weight given to ADP and XRANK (Yahoo!’s expert ranking) values.
    When I was drafting, I too often measured a player’s availability with those ADP and XRANK values. If Justin Smoak – drafted in Round 12 (144) – was still there at 144 even though his XRANK was sub-100, there’s a reason. See reason #2!
  4. TWELVE rounds saw a pick that I was going to make that round be taken by a GM before me in that round. SEVEN times it was the pick immediately before mine.
    This happens all the time in drafts. Those that come prepared and can pivot more gracefully will ultimately triumph. In truth, with a 30-second clock and too much of #1 and #3 and not enough of #2, I think I did okay. Not stellar and not the full result I wanted, but it is a team I would gladly compete with.

Did I land Acuna? No. Because I wavered from my conviction in his talent. I would have likely been able to land 80-90% of the remaining players I drafted even drafting Acuna in Round 7 (77) or Round 8 (92). Comparing where Acuna went in our draft – Round 14 (160) – to the other major sites, as well as some other MiLB outfielders that were drafted:

PLAYER (TEAM) MLFS OF* OVER ESPN CBS YAHOO RTS** NFBC^ FT^^ AVG
Ronald Acuna (ATL) 160 38 132 159 102 192 128 114 103 133.0
David Dahl (COL) 196 66 229 268 229 374 203 228 213 252.5
Willie Calhoun (TEX) 221 73 254 271 280 352 269 245 202 269.8
Lewis Brinson (MIA) 275 103 364 283 371 321 296 298 313.8
Jesse Winker (CIN) 293 109 390 301 353 317 306 319.3
Victor Robles (WAS) 295 87 311 258 334 342 295 275 300.8

*OF – Nth outfielder drafted
**RTS – RealTime Fantasy Sports
^NFBC – National Fantasy Baseball Championship
^^FT – Fantrax

To a player, we as a league drafted these outfielders earlier than the national average with the lone exception of Superman himself, Acuna. That’s surprising. My interpretation of “Gem” is a player you were able to secure early enough to warrant considerable value but late enough such that it didn’t negatively impact your drafting strategy. Acuna at #160 indeed qualifies a Gem.

You could debate that each player in the above table is a Gem, especially Winker (higher average with some power) and Robles (contact hitter with speed and tremendous defensive prowess) taken largely as bench bodies. Would you temporarily surrender one of your bench positions for one of the above players suspecting, borderline knowing, that they will be on that MLB roster soon? As evidenced above with my own draft choices, in previous articles, and in my own game play, I know I sure would. (The true master knows when to leverage that aging veteran for the next MiLB breakout performer, perpetually keeping his team in the hunt for Fantasy Championships.)

Next week we will dive even deeper for some more ADP Gems, but the key is that you must believe in these players that you will be drafting. In this Mock Draft with the MLFS gurus, I was able to secure two of my Draft Now players, missing on the third only because of my own hesitation. Perhaps in my next draft (March 22), I won’t deviate from my plan. Time will tell.

Until next week … thanks for reading!

Major League Fantasy Football 2018 League Openings

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join host Corey D Roberts and Bilal Chaudry live on Sunday March 11th, 2018 from [8:20]-9:45pm EST for episode #105 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. This is our kick off show for the new 2018 fantasy baseball season. This is our mock draft review special for the 2018 season. MLFS writers, and legacy league owners will be guests for 5 minutes to discuss their strategy.

A business analyst by day, pursuing all things baseball by night. My favorite day of the year is opening day and my favorite sound is the crack of the bat ... the great contact-type, not that flubbed, squishy foul ball-type. In my free time I still collect some baseball cards (though not quite like I did when I was 12), join my colleagues here writing for Major League Fantasy Sports and manage a recently-founded Dynasty League.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Help Support Our Growth!

Major League Fantasy Baseball Show Episode #134, 8/26/2018 Host Brian Roach, Jr., Co-Host Cole Freel, Guest Bryan Luhrs

Major League Fantasy Baseball Show Episode #134, 8/26/2018 Host Brian Roach, Jr, Co-Host Cole Freel, Guest Bryan Luhrs

Radio Show Feed

Blog Authors

Brandon ZimanBrandon Ziman

Grew up playing baseball since I could hold a bat. Played baseball through high school and college. Somehow became a Yankee fan even though I ...

Brian Roach, JrBrian Roach, Jr

Baseball fan through and through. Follows every team, every player and every transaction. Graduated Lasell College in 2013. Covers high sc...

Bryan LuhrsBryan Luhrs

Faith, Family and Fantasy Sports.These are the three words that best describe me. I am a faithful husband and father of 6 amazing children. I ...

Cole FreelCole Freel

Bachelors in English and History from Indiana University. Borderline-Obsessed Fantasy Baseball Writer who also dabbles in Football, Basketball...

Corey D RobertsCorey D Roberts

Owner and creator of Major League Fantasy Sports. We will provide you with the best tools to be successful in your leagues no matter if ...

Geordie EasterbrookGeordie Easterbrook

I’m a former pitcher from upstate New York, and a proud Demon Deacon. Go Deacs! I’ve been playing fantasy football and baseball for the be...

James WilkJames Wilk

I grew up a Dallas Cowboy's fan in Washington Redskins' country, but I currently reside in Florida. I have played fantasy sports since 1999,...

Jason BlackfordJason Blackford

General IT/Web/Backoffice resource for MLFS. After sitting down with Corey and getting a good look at the time and effort needed to maintain ...

Joe IannoneJoe Iannone

I'm an accountant and an amateur writer of fiction and sports commentary, mostly baseball. I've been a student of the game of baseball since...

John GozziJohn Gozzi

Intense sports lover . a writer who specializes in creative non- fiction almost always challenging the status quo. I've suffered but rema...

Josh HoukJosh Houk

Certified Sports Fanatic: Everything Cleveland sports and all the happenings around classic sports. Full time program manager in construc...

Kevin BzdekKevin Bzdek

I've been playing fantasy baseball for 14 years. I am also an auditor and CPA, where I analyze information on a daily basis. Combined, my pas...

Kyle AmoreKyle Amore

I'm a former collegiate and semi-pro baseball player. I underwent successful Tommy John Surgery in 2008, and can give a wide-range of tips on...

Mark RushMark Rush

Unrepentant Red Sox fan and all things Boston. Deflategate was a joke. Boston Latin School is awesome. Harvard and Johns Hopkins alma mater...

Matt BarkmanMatt Barkman

A/S/L...like the old school AOL instant messenger days...
31/M/PA
Elementary Physical Education by day, chasing around my 1 and 2 year old boy...

Mike RiggallMike Riggall

I've been coaching lacrosse since 2002 and playing fantasy football since 2006. I've racked up several championships over the years includi...

Nick GehlbachNick Gehlbach

Husband and father of three. Have a love of all things baseball. When not burying myself in baseball (especially fantasy) I enjoy fish...

Todd NevinTodd Nevin

A business analyst by day, pursuing all things baseball by night. My favorite day of the year is opening day and my favorite sound is the crac...

Fantasy Football 2019 League Openings: What do you want? Competition or Boredom? #fantasyfootball #NFL majorleaguefantasysports.com/… via @MLFantasySports

About 3 days ago from Corey Roberts's Twitter via Twitter Web Client

Subscribe for Free

Help Support Our Growth!

More in Baseball Writers