This is part 6 in an eight part series THE ART OF THE SWINDLE (aka BUY HIGH/SELL LOW). The art of hi/lo is all about timing, see below a prime example in 2018.
TIME TO BUY
DISCOUNTED STAR?? written prior to the NO HITTER
James Paxton (SEA)- savvy owners know that history shows that sooner or later this guy will miss a bunch of starts. Add to that the PaxMan’s spotty performance (4.19 ERA and 1.32 WHIP) and throw an offer out there. Don’t be a jerk and offer a run-of-the-mill hitter and Francisco Hat Sideways Rodney. Make a real offer of a VALID HITTER/ and or speedster and grab the Mariners stud and just hope that by some miracle he can toss 200 innings. Oh and don’t forget to buy your Powerball Tickets!
But seriously, find who has this guy and figure out if he’d even remotely be available. Then plot,scheme, and connive a way to the big time if you can score this stud.
RAKE ‘EM OVER THE COALS written after the NO HITTER
Paxman for President. If you thought last year was great, 2018 will be even better. The Mariners will contend for the pennant. This guy will not get hurt. The guy will contend for the CY! Feel free to get the word out if they’re not already beating down your front door. Sure, it takes pelotas grande to even think about it. But think about the treasure haul you’ll get a good starter and at least a good hitter in return and in the long run HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT TOP THREE STATUS. Conversely,if your team is floundering or sunk AND IN A DYNASTY LEAGUE consider the sage comment by Branch Rickey to his star player who had the gall to ask for a modest raise WE CAN FINISH IN LAST PLACE WITH OR WITHOUT YOU and sell this guy to the highest bidder.
LOWER COST OPTIONS
Jake Odorizzi (MINNY)- finally liberated to a team that could actually play meaningful September ballgames. It’s been a mediocre start for this quality pitcher. Take into account that this guy was not a main cog type of guy, just a filler that could post above average ERA (3.84) , WHIP (1.23) and decent strikeout numbers. But the Twins have disappointed thus far and overlooked in fantasy circles. It’s a long ass season and if you believe even a little bit in a Twinkies resurgence grab this guy, at 28 years old with a new lease on life he’ll get the job done. COUNT ON IT.
AYE CARIMBA PLAY
Luis Castillo (CINCY)- his nickname is La Piedra (the Stone). Well,if last year was the birth of a legend, this year is the huge growing pain. The fact that he’s 25 years old, and not younger, is probably the only reason the Reds haven’t banished the former phenom to the minor leagues. After two sterling years in the minors, mostly in relief, last year, the RedLegs made a starter out of this guy with off-the-chart results. Combined AA/BIGS he tossed almost 180 innings and won a dozen games. In addition were lovely ERA’s and ratios and a boatload of K’s. A month and a half ago, at minimum, he was considered a star in the making and TOP 30 S.P IN THE GAME POTENTIAL.
And then low tide washed ashore. In seven starts he hasn’t approached a quality start. All in all a wretched stretch with the appalling stats as testimony (ERA 7.01, WHIP 1.67). But he’s young, he’s talented, he’s THE STONE!! This is the old dime on the dollar play. Do it before that special arm–97.5 AVERAGE FASTBALL IN ’17-regains its mojo. EVEN IF HE’S ON THE REDS, TAKE THE PLUNGE !!
POR NADA (FOR NOTHING)
Luis Gohara (ATL)- hard to say if the Braves are being extra cautious or he REALLY REALLY SPRAINED the crap out of his ankle. Either way he has finally been cleared for takeoff (at AAA). Th reports are that he will be in the bullpen for now.
Last year was an impressive one for the big but somewhat portly lefty who zipped through four levels as a 20-year-old. No B.S- this guy hurled 152 very good innings last year including seven starts for the Braves (3.31 ERA and 48 K’s in only 35.1 innings). Hence, if you were paying even fair-to-middling attention this guy was at worst on your sleeper list. And then along came the injury and somehow, someway the Braves actually look like a team that could be a playoff contender. But it’s the lack of depth at Starting Pitching that will surely bite them. Guys like Brandon McCarthy, and Anibel Sanchez pitch well at times but are frankly, has -beens. The Braves have the young guns to match any in the game–Soroka already got promoted, Allard, another lefty, is on the verge. But Gohara, he’s the guy you gotta grab now if in the free agent pool or on the trailing edge of another owners bench.
TIME TO SELL
Chad Bettis (COLO)- No way. No how. No chance that this guy ends the season with an ERA (2.05) or WHIP (1.05) anywhere near present levels. Add to that his sterling 4-1 record and pitching on a possible playoff contender and the vultures most assuredly be asking for this guy. But let’s be real, a lifetime of 5.01 and pitching, in theory, half his games at Coors….. Not to say that he couldn’t turn the corner to the tune of 15W/4.10 ERA/1.33 WHIP. Instead, find a fish out there that thinks this guy is the Prodigal Son. Find that guy and TAKE ‘EM AS DEEP AS HUMANLY POSSIBLE AS QUICK AS HUMANLY POSSIBLE due to the fact that a Coors Field meltdown is just a shout away.
Francisco Liriano (DET)- He’s 34 now and in spite of two lousy seasons in a row he’s been simply spectacular. Well situated in the Tigers rotation he’s 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, that’s all-star level material. But do not trust it for two main reasons: his lifetime ERA is 4.15 and WHIP a pedestrian 1.34. Add to that the odds on his ability to pitch a full season- slim and none- make him a good guy to put on the block. Don’t ask the moon, just get a solid player in return that offers more stability or maybe even a youngster with upside regardless of format.
13 THINGS YOU MUST EXPERIENCE IN FANTASY BASEBALL
- TRY THE DYNASTY FORMAT WHERE YOU BUILD A TEAM FROM THE GROUND UP
- BAN YAHOO- IT MAY BE THE RIGHT PRICE (FREE) BUT PLAYER POSITION ELIGIBILITY AND PICKUPS ACTIVATION RULES STINK
- GO WITH FAAB FOR PICKUPS. THE WAIVER ORDER THING IS SOOOO YESTERDAY
- RAISE THE BAR I. GET IN AN AL OR NL ONLY LEAGUE. THIS WILL BROADEN YOUR KNOWLEDGE BASE GUARANTEED
- RAISE THE BAR II. IT’S CALLED 30/30- ON DRAFT DAY YOU CAN ONLY CHOOSE ONE PLAYER PER MLB TEAM. INEXPERIENCED PLAYERS NEED NOT APPLY
- RAISE THE BAR III. PLAY IN A HIGH STAKES LEAGUE. IF YOU’RE USED TO $50 ENTRY – TRY A $200 LEAGUE (example)
- GO LIVE- THERE IS NOTHING LIKE THE DRAMA AND CAMARADERIE OF THE LIVE SPECTACLE. ALL YOU NEED IS 11 OTHER NUTS AND A DRAFT BOARD (for starters)
- BROADEN ACTIVE ROSTERS- USE 5 Outfielders, CIF AND MIF, SO WHAT IF IT’S HARDER?
- TRY BEST BALL- GAINING IN POPULARITY. YOU PICK A TEAM AND YOUR BEST RESULTS COUNT. THE CAVEAT BEING THAT THERE IS NO FREE AGENT POOL!!
- VARY THE LEAGUES YOU ARE IN. ROTI/ HEAD TO HEAD/ONE WIN/ KEEPER LEAGUES- IT’S CLICHE BUT …ALL GOOD
- GET RID OF WINS (AND REPLACE WITH QS). Also consider losing stolen bases …..and replacing with SPEED (EXAMPLE: singles+stolen- caught stolen+triplesX3)
- GET IN A LEAGUE WITH DUAL PRIZE STRUCTURE. IN EFFECT THE BEST REGULAR SEASON TEAM IS REWARDED MONETARILY
- GET IN A SLOW DRAFT AS LONG AS THE TIME LIMITS ARE TO YOUR LIKING. THIS IS A FUN WAY TO PICK A TEAM PRIOR TO SPRING TRAINING
Next week, PART 7 of hi/lo and my foray onto the NFL BEAT- DEFENSIVE BACKS draft analysis.
SO LONG FOR NOW
Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join host Brian Roach, Jr, and Cole Freel live on Sunday May 6th, 2018 from 8-9:30pm EST for episode #119 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. We will discuss the latest information in the world of fantasy baseball.
Our guest this week is Kyle Klinker. Kyle has been an owner in MLFS baseball, and basketball leagues for over 5 years. He also has a couple of championships under his belt over that span in some tough leagues. We loving refer to him as “The Red Rocket.”