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mid-season SP Angst from the MadProf

Summertime…and the livin’ is easy. Is it Football Season Yet?

Hi Sports Fans.  By now, there is no question that many of you have already sought refuge in the magazine aisle of your local supermarket.  The early-early-editions of the NFL fantasy guides are out.  They offer a bit of peace to those whose fantasy baseball seasons have already tanked.  Everyone knows that it’s easier to build a baseball dynasty team if you are reading a football guide… So, what to do now if you are out front, middle of the pack, or reading fantasy football pages?

As we head to the All-Star Break, pretty much all has been said about whom to drop or pick up.  So, I pause to offer reflective thoughts on league format and energy.  Folks do complain that the length of the MLB season takes its toll on even the most avid fantasy player.  Unless you are in a league that calculates points based on some pretty arcane minutiae of baseball play, it’s difficult to make moves that will make a difference to your fate unless the gods of the Vegas odds smile upon you.

I’m in three different league formats.  For nearly 20 years, I’ve been a denizen of a 10-team, AL-only traditional 5×5 league.  By today’s standards, it’s almost quaint.  Attrition has been slow.  Nonetheless, I’m the only founding member left.  This league is an effing shark tank.  If anyone offers a trade, you assume that he or she is already on to something.  It’s worse than Billy Bean making a move on your Hatteberg or Hasselhoff.  Trust no one…especially if he is smiling.  All of these guys know the Jedi mind-trick.  Seriously.  This league is an effing O’Jays song:

They smile in your face
All the time they want to take your place
The back stabbers 

 

 

So, contests are won and lost essentially on draft day or by streaming SP.

We went through growing pains and, a couple of years ago made the switch from season-long roto snake draft to weekly H2H auction.  We did this because we assumed that the weekly scoring would provide more incentive to invest in trades and the FA/waiver market.  The auction was obvious:  the owners all wanted a shot at Albert Pujols (at the time). In a season-long roto league, even Mike Trout won’t help you much if you are, say 15 HR behind the next team in the standings.  In an H2H league, one or two additional HR per week is a more considerable value and worth a trade.

Strangely, the shift did not increase trades at all.  Got to say that this is an impressive bunch.  The draft is brutal, we know one another real well, and the draft is a great study in wisdom, familiarity breeding contempt, a just plain great knowledge.  Nonetheless, in an AL-only league, you hit the bottom of the barrel pretty quickly.  The good news is that we get over it by Christmas and start to retool.  Spring always comes early.

The second league is a 10-team (formerly 12 team) MLB H2H auction league in which you can keep up to three players every year for a maximum of three years.  This is a much more dynamic league.  The talent pool depth enables managers to make lots of moves.  However, trades are scarce because they are less necessary (due to the talent availability) and because there is a similar element of familiarity-bred contempt.  I may drink beer with that guy.  But why is he offering me Kershaw…?  The moves are more prevalent as well because the keeper element makes it worthwhile for folks to stash a prospect or two.  We do limit bench spots, though.  So, you can’t tank in favor of looking to next year while buying the May version of football manuals.

For those who enjoy sin and redemption, I’m also in a 15 team MLB roto snake-draft league that restarts every month.  There is no bench.  Once you draft you are done unless a player goes on the DL.  You may replace any DL designee and make ONE lone move to adjust your roster from the FA pool.  Otherwise, you are betting on your draft skill.  This league nicely mixes the mundanely obvious (as manifest in the first 10 picks or so) and conservative (you’ve got only one month) with a little bit of craziness in those who’ve messed up (so they pick long shots at the end of the draft because, hey, it’s only a month).

I stay away from DFS.

Overall, it’s a great balance that keeps you into fantasy throughout the marathon because the strategies and the points of no return are different enough to ensure that at least one of the leagues will keep you busy deep into the year.

So, that said…  The monthly league forgives all.  But, it requires you to stay on top of season-long trends.  You shift from the same database anyone else uses in April to any, more dynamic and timely database you can find as the season goes on.  So, with redemption comes labor.  The AL-only league leaves me (and anyone else) constantly scrounging the FA market.  The guys who do better in this league tend to make a lot of marginal transactions.  The payoff is worth it.  But, it is not perfect.  As an example, in our current league, the top teams have made 72, 10, and 105 moves respectively.  Go figure. A game and a half separates them.  After that, team four is 10 games out and the rest of us fall off the cliff.  Teams four through nine are separated by a total of 10 games.  The caboose changes his name to “Dumpster Fires” and sits 27 games out atop a pile of football manuals.  He is the newbie.

Easily, 90% of the action in this league is inspired by DFS streaming strategy:  lots of movement at the back end of SP rotations and more than occasional spot starts for batters on travel days.  In this league, there is not much to look for unless you are a DFS-payer in disguise.  There is batting talent available in this league (Iglesias, Kendrys Morales, Rougned Odor, Denard Span, Lucas Duda…).  But nothing you’d necessarily want to slide into your lineup for long.

In terms of SP, you’ve got the likes of Hardy, Eovaldi, Cahill, Hess…(David Robertson sits there in limbo waiting to be traded into fantasy value…).  But, seriously, who among these guys is likely to deliver quality for more than a start or two?  Can you count on them?  I’ve got Porcello, Manaea, Bundy, Rodon, German.  Not much incentive to trade…  The guys fighting it out for the top spot have incredible teams and they would have to trade value for value.  They won’t move.

 

Arrgh.  Purgatory.

In the MLB league, the top five are separated by eight games.  Moves are much more balanced here because of the depth of the draft pool.  The top five have made 30, 22, 27, 4 and 47 moves respectively.  In seventh place, we find the league moves leader with 72.  There is a lot of talent out there and lots of talent taken.  So, not much incentive to make any major moves.

In the monthly league…well, it’s just wait and see.  Redemption and the 4th of July are near.

So, what to do?  In the AL only league, I can make moves (I’ll probably unload Giolito though my conscience says to hang on).  In the MLB league, I can afford to move slowly.  There is lots of talent and lots of time…

Next week I’ll offer some trends analysis to consider as you reload for the second half.  Meanwhile, for those of you who are tanking, I offer two thouhts.  First, Baseball as a Road to God by John Sexton will reaffirm your belief in the game.  If that doesn’t work, I leave you with Noah Syndergaard:

“Baseball has a way of ripping your ?? out, stabbing it, putting it back in your chest, then healing itself just in time for Spring Training” or, at least, just in time for your NFL fantasy draft.

 

Best wishes

Are you looking for a better experience? Fantasy Football League Openings 2018

Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join host Brian Roach, Jr, and Cole Freel live on Sunday June 24th, 2018 from 8-9:30pm EST for episode #126 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. We will discss the latest information in the world of fantasy baseball.

Our guest this week is Bryan Luhrs. Bryan is a writer with majorleaguefantasysports.com and is also the owner of Real Deal Dynasty Sports. Bryan’s articles publish every Thursday morning at 7am EST.

Major League Fantasy Football Radio Show: Join host Corey D Robertsand Kyle Amore live June 21st, 2018 from 8-9:30pm EST for episode #83 of Major League Fantasy Football Radio. Call in number is 323-870-4395 press 1 to speak with the host. We will hit free agents, rookies, and fantasy football as a whole for each team for 2018. This week we will discuss everything  AFC North!

Kyle is a writer with majorleaguefantasysports.com going on his 5 th year. He focuses primarily on baseball, but is a fantasy football fan and analyst as well.

 

Unrepentant Red Sox fan and all things Boston. Deflategate was a joke. Boston Latin School is awesome. Harvard and Johns Hopkins alma maters... Besides that... Stanley D. and Nikki Waxberg Professor of Politics and Law at Washington and Lee University. Wrote for Ron Shandler's Shandler Park for two summers and have been on board with MLFS since 2011. Been at Washington and Lee since 1990 with a brief hiatus (2010-2013) in the Middle East. Currently developing that last word in Fantasy Baseball analysis. Married to Flor, Dad to William and Alex, and adopted daughter Reem. Soon to be father and law to Meaghann. Alpha male to the world's super-pup, Humphrey. Life is not bad.

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Major League Fantasy Baseball Show Episode #134, 8/26/2018 Host Brian Roach, Jr., Co-Host Cole Freel, Guest Bryan Luhrs

Major League Fantasy Baseball Show Episode #134, 8/26/2018 Host Brian Roach, Jr, Co-Host Cole Freel, Guest Bryan Luhrs

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Brandon ZimanBrandon Ziman

Grew up playing baseball since I could hold a bat. Played baseball through high school and college. Somehow became a Yankee fan even though I ...

Brian Roach, JrBrian Roach, Jr

Baseball fan through and through. Follows every team, every player and every transaction. Graduated Lasell College in 2013. Covers high sc...

Bryan LuhrsBryan Luhrs

Faith, Family and Fantasy Sports.These are the three words that best describe me. I am a faithful husband and father of 6 amazing children. I ...

Cole FreelCole Freel

Bachelors in English and History from Indiana University. Borderline-Obsessed Fantasy Baseball Writer who also dabbles in Football, Basketball...

Corey D RobertsCorey D Roberts

Owner and creator of Major League Fantasy Sports. We will provide you with the best tools to be successful in your leagues no matter if ...

Geordie EasterbrookGeordie Easterbrook

I’m a former pitcher from upstate New York, and a proud Demon Deacon. Go Deacs! I’ve been playing fantasy football and baseball for the be...

James WilkJames Wilk

I grew up a Dallas Cowboy's fan in Washington Redskins' country, but I currently reside in Florida. I have played fantasy sports since 1999,...

Jason BlackfordJason Blackford

General IT/Web/Backoffice resource for MLFS. After sitting down with Corey and getting a good look at the time and effort needed to maintain ...

Joe IannoneJoe Iannone

I'm an accountant and an amateur writer of fiction and sports commentary, mostly baseball. I've been a student of the game of baseball since...

John GozziJohn Gozzi

Intense sports lover . a writer who specializes in creative non- fiction almost always challenging the status quo. I've suffered but rema...

Josh HoukJosh Houk

Certified Sports Fanatic: Everything Cleveland sports and all the happenings around classic sports. Full time program manager in construc...

Kevin BzdekKevin Bzdek

I've been playing fantasy baseball for 14 years. I am also an auditor and CPA, where I analyze information on a daily basis. Combined, my pas...

Kyle AmoreKyle Amore

I'm a former collegiate and semi-pro baseball player. I underwent successful Tommy John Surgery in 2008, and can give a wide-range of tips on...

Mark RushMark Rush

Unrepentant Red Sox fan and all things Boston. Deflategate was a joke. Boston Latin School is awesome. Harvard and Johns Hopkins alma mater...

Matt BarkmanMatt Barkman

A/S/L...like the old school AOL instant messenger days...
31/M/PA
Elementary Physical Education by day, chasing around my 1 and 2 year old boy...

Mike RiggallMike Riggall

I've been coaching lacrosse since 2002 and playing fantasy football since 2006. I've racked up several championships over the years includi...

Nick GehlbachNick Gehlbach

Husband and father of three. Have a love of all things baseball. When not burying myself in baseball (especially fantasy) I enjoy fish...

Todd NevinTodd Nevin

A business analyst by day, pursuing all things baseball by night. My favorite day of the year is opening day and my favorite sound is the crac...

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