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“Alluhring Strategy” 2018 MLB Draft Breakdown – NL West

Welcome back, Baseball Fans

Welcome to the final edition of Major League Fantasy Sports coverage of the 2018 MLB Draft as well as the final edition of Alluhring Strategy for the season. It’s been another fun year of speculation and breaking down potential. Can’t wait to look back on these articles in a few years to see how we did. For now, we look at each team’s strategy and how they executed it. We end our journey in the National League West.

 

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
RD PICK RANK PLAYER SCHOOL POS B/T PLAYER INFO PICK VALUE SIGNING BONUS
1 25 54 McLain, Matt Beckman HS (CA) 2B R/R 5′ 10 175lbs DOB: 08/06/99 $2,636,400
CBA 39 39 McCarthy, Jake Virginia (VA) OF L/L 6′ 3 195lbs DOB: 07/30/97 $1,834,500 $1,650,000
2 63 41 Thomas, Alek Mt. Carmel HS (IL) OF L/L 5′ 11 175lbs DOB: 04/28/00 $1,035,500 $1,200,000
3 99 108 Goddard, Jackson Kansas (KS) P R/R 6′ 3 220lbs DOB: 12/12/96 $565,100 $550,000
4 129 159 Weiss, Ryan Wright State University (OH) P R/R 6′ 4 210lbs DOB: 12/10/96 $422,100 $400,000
5 159 105 Mercer, Matt Oregon (OR) P R/R 6′ 2 180lbs DOB: 09/01/96 $314,800 $314,800
6 189 Miller, Ryan Clemson (SC) P R/R 6′ 0 180lbs DOB: 03/28/96 $243,700 $25,000
7 219 Moths, Travis Tennessee Tech (TN) P R/R 6′ 1 190lbs DOB: 09/22/95 $191,000 $20,000
8 249 182 Kelly, Levi IMG Academy (FL) P R/R 6′ 2 205lbs DOB: 05/14/99 $158,500 $350,000
9 279 Holton, Tyler Florida State (FL) P L/L 6′ 2 200lbs DOB: 06/13/96 $144,800 $144,800
10 309 Dalesandro, Nick Purdue (IN) C R/R 6′ 1 175lbs DOB: 10/03/96 $137,300 $137,300

 

First up is the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their approach seemed to be to grab some risky upside hitters than stock up on college arms that could advance quickly through the system. They made a significant reach for first round pick, Matt McLain, a prep SS from a California high school. He could be viewed as a poor man’s Alex Bregman, but his under-sized stature gives many comparison’s Dustin Pedroia. He posses a plus hit tool, but poor mechanics at the plate will limit his ceiling and his power potential. Arizona has yet to sign him and he may fulfill his commitment to UCLA. Risky selection for a future utility infielder.

Favorite Pick: Alek Thomas OF, High School, IL (Round 2, Pick #63)

Thomas has bloodlines with the White Sox’ Strength and Conditioning Coach, Allen Thomas. He is crazy athletic with plus hit tool, plus speed and plus glove. His undersized frame (5’11”, 175) is likely the reason for his slide and should have easily been selected in the top 50 picks. His plate discipline and quick lefty swing should help his hit tool to translate to the Majors. Great value at #63 but they did have to go over slot ($1.2M) to get him signed.

Quickest Path: Matt Mercer RHP, Oregon (Round 5, Pick # 159)

Mercer was a starter with Oregon, but his unique delivery, high velocity and two plus pitches (fastball, changeup) will play best out of the pen. If Arizona commits to making him a reliever, he could move quickly through the system and be a high leverage reliever in the desert by next season.

Overall Grade: B

Questionable pick in the first round, but great value in the 2nd and 5th with the players listed above. Throw in the sandwich in the competitive balance round, Jake McCarthy, and they got a high risk, high reward OF that could be the best of the bunch.

 

COLORADO ROCKIES
RD PICK RANK PLAYER SCHOOL POS B/T PLAYER INFO PICK VALUE SIGNING BONUS
1 22 17 Rolison, Ryan Ole Miss (MS) P R/L 6′ 2 195lbs DOB: 07/11/97 $2,912,300 $2,912,300
CBA 42 99 Lavigne, Grant Bedford HS (NH) 1B L/R 6′ 4 220lbs DOB: 08/27/99 $1,704,000 $2,000,000
2C 76 83 Kilkenny, Mitchell Texas A&M (TX) P R/R 6′ 4 206lbs DOB: 03/24/97 $787,200 $550,000
3 96 129 Vavra, Terrin Minnesota (MN) SS L/R 6′ 1 185lbs DOB: 05/12/97 $581,900 $550,000
4 126 156 Feltner, Ryan Ohio State (OH) P R/R 6′ 4 190lbs DOB: 09/02/96 $434,700 $434,700
5 156 Bird, Jacob UCLA (CA) P R/R 6′ 3 200lbs DOB: 12/04/95 $323,800 $50,000
6 186 173 Decolati, Niko Loyola Marymount University (CA) OF R/R 6′ 1 215lbs DOB: 08/12/97 $249,600 $249,600
7 216 176 Quezada, Andrew Cal State Fullerton (CA) P L/R 6′ 1 182lbs DOB: 06/28/97 $195,700 $175,000
8 246 Bush, Nick LSU (LA) P L/L 5′ 11 173lbs DOB: 08/23/96 $160,700 $200,000
9 276 MacIver, Willie Washington (WA) P R/R 6′ 2 205lbs DOB: 10/28/96 $145,900 $145,900
10 306 Harris, Cade Oklahoma (OK) OF L/R 6′ 2 195lbs DOB: 05/27/97 $138,100 $150,000

 

Next up is the Colorado Rockies. I honestly couldn’t get a grasp of what they were trying to accomplish. There are quite a few safe picks here that seem to stock organizational depth with the hopes to hit a home run so to speak. RHP Mitchell Kilkenny (Texas A&M) and RHP Andrew Quezada (Cal State Fullerton) are both decent college arms that could be productive starters but don’t project as front-line starters. SS Tarrin Vavra (Minnesota) and OF Cade Harris (Oklahoma) are both high floor college bats that have average to above-average tools in all five categories but no plus tools. They have potential to be productive Major League contributors but likely not All-Star material. They did sign all of their first top picks with only one over slot bonus.

Highest Ceiling: Ryan Rolison LHP, Ole Miss (Round 1, Pick # 22)

Ryan is one of the top LHP coming out of college with a four-pitch mix including a plus power curve and a potential plus fastball. All his pitches are MLB caliber and his command should allow him to remain a starter. Rolison signed a slot value bonus rather than returning to school which represents good value for the Rockies. He has the makeup and profiles to succeed in Denver’s thin air.

Riskiest Pick: Grant Lavigne 1B, High School NH (Round CBA, Pick # 99)

There is no question that Grant has raw power in his sweet lefty swing. Unfortunately, he has only an average hit tool and everything else is below average. At 6’4″, 220 lbs and limited defensive potential, he is a 1B/DH only type which limits value for NL teams.

Overall Grade: B+
I like the overall collection of players but dock them for spending a high pick on Lavigne and then overpays him a signing bonus ($2M).
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
RD PICK RANK PLAYER SCHOOL POS B/T PLAYER INFO PICK VALUE SIGNING BONUS
1 30 33 Ginn, J.T. Brandon HS (MS) P R/R 6′ 1 210lbs DOB: 05/20/99 $2,275,800
2 68 Grove, Michael West Virginia (WV) P R/R 6′ 3 200lbs DOB: 12/18/96 $917,000
3 104 181 Rooney, John Hofstra (NY) P L/L 6′ 5 235lbs DOB: 01/28/97 $538,800
4 134 80 Fisher, Braydon Clear Falls HS (TX) P R/R 6′ 4 180lbs DOB: 07/26/00 $402,300 $497,500
5 164 Mann, Devin Louisville (KY) 2B R/R 6′ 3 180lbs DOB: 02/11/97 $300,600 $272,500
6 194 Warzek, Bryan University of New Orleans (LA) P L/L 6′ 0 205lbs DOB: 01/17/97 $233,800 $202,500
7 224 Outman, James Sacramento State (CA) OF L/R 6′ 2 195lbs DOB: 05/14/97 $184,200 $157,500
8 254 Heyer, Luke Kentucky (KY) 2B R/R 6′ 0 200lbs DOB: 09/26/96 $155,300 $47,500
9 284 McLain, Josh North Carolina State (NC) OF R/R 6′ 1 170lbs DOB: 09/23/96 $143,600 $7,500
10 314 Liput, Deacon Florida (FL) 2B L/R 5′ 10 185lbs DOB: 06/27/96 $136,800
The Dodgers had a questionable draft starting with RHP prep arm, JT Ginn out of a Mississippi high school. Great combination of velocity, put-away slider and command makes for a high ceiling. His commitment to Mississippi State and projection to eventually become a reliever dropped his stock. As of this publishing, he along with their 2nd and 3rd round picks had not signed.

Consensus Best Pick: Braydon Fisher RHP, HS TX (Round 4, Pick # 134)

Fisher is the only other pick by LA that was considered a Top 100 draft prospect. He’s a taller, more athletic version of Ginn with some same pitch mix that is just less developed. His velocity plays faster due to a downward plane. He does display advanced command for a 17-year-old. Fantastic value at #134 and only a modest over-slot bonus.

Biggest Reach: John Rooney LHP, Hofstra (Round 3, Pick # 104)

One of several head-scratching selections, LA took Rooney who was ranked by MLB.com as their #180 best draft prospect. Although he has advanced command, his arsenal is Major League average at best. His ceiling is a 5th Starter at best. He has not signed yet as of this publishing.

Overall Grade: C

Due to trouble signing top picks and risky picks, this is my least favorite draft class in the division.

 

SAN DIEGO PADRES
RD PICK RANK PLAYER SCHOOL POS B/T PLAYER INFO PICK VALUE SIGNING BONUS
1 7 13 Weathers, Ryan Loretto HS (TN) P L/L 6′ 1 200lbs DOB: 12/17/99 $5,226,500
CBA 38 28 Edwards, Xavier North Broward Prep HS (FL) SS S/R 5′ 10 155lbs DOB: 08/09/99 $1,878,300 $2,600,000
CBB 74 128 Little, Grant Texas Tech (TX) OF R/R 6′ 1 185lbs DOB: 07/08/97 $812,200 $800,000
3 84 Miller, Owen Illinois State (IL) SS R/R 6′ 0 190lbs DOB: 11/15/96 $694,500 $500,000
4 111 84 Coleman, Dylan Missouri State (MO) P R/R 6′ 5 215lbs DOB: 09/16/96 $502,800 $500,000
5 141 Williams-Sutton, Dwanya East Carolina (NC) OF R/R 6′ 2 215lbs DOB: 07/10/97 $375,600 $350,000
6 171 Vega, Alexuan Leonides Morales Rodriguez HS P L/L 6′ 2 160lbs DOB: 06/22/99 $282,700 $250,000
7 201 192 Harris, Jawuan Rutgers (NJ) OF R/R 5′ 9 195lbs DOB: 11/03/96 $221,000 $215,000
8 231 Wilson, Steven Santa Clara University (CA) P R/R 6′ 3 185lbs DOB: 08/24/94 $175,400 $5,000
9 261 Becker, Luke Kentucky (KY) 2B S/R 5′ 11 190lbs DOB: 04/08/96 $151,600 $5,000
10 291 Quezada, Jose Texas Tech (TX) P R/R 5′ 9 175lbs DOB: 09/07/95 $141,600

 

After a rough start to his tenure with the Padres, AJ Preller has done an excellent job rebuilding the organization’s Farm System. After killing it last year, this seemed like a “safer” path to fill the depth in around their top prospects already in the system. They did take a prep arm and prep bat in their first two rounds, they were not high ceiling guys rather, more “sure-thing” average Major League contributor. Their first pick, LHP Ryan Weathers, is the son of the former pitcher, David Weathers. He is one of the more polished prep arms with bloodlines but #7 overall is high for someone with no true plus pitches. He does project to have three legit Major League offerings with advanced command, but not sure that warrants this high a pick as it offers limited ceiling. He should remain a starter and not move to the pen like his dad, but there is the risk that he honors his commitment to Vanderbilt rather than sign so as to keeping hitting for a little longer.

Way Better in Real Life than Fantasy Pick: Xavier Edwards SS, High School FL (Compensation Rd, Pick # 38) 

Edwards is a slick fielding, speedster that has demonstrated a hit tool due to good plate discipline and advanced approach for a prep bat. He has 70-80 speed that could play anywhere up the middle: SS, 2B, CF. His speed will definitely translate but he may be only one or two category stud for fantasy but could be a team’s MVP in real life.

Biggest Lottery Ticket Pick: Jawuan Harris OF, Rutgers (Round 7, Pick # 201)

Uber-athletic, two-sport stud, Harris is another speedster with raw tools with great potential if he sticks with baseball only. He has limited reps due to football commitments, but the speed and defense could get him a regular CF gig. In addition, his raw power could develop during a lengthy time in the minors, but his biggest hurdle is the extreme swing-and-miss potential. This is a great value for the 7th round and he already signed for slightly below slot value.

Overall Grade: B-

San Diego had a good but not great draft. This grade lowers if Weathers doesn’t sign and overall too safe to earn a higher grade.

 

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
RD PICK RANK PLAYER SCHOOL POS B/T PLAYER INFO PICK VALUE SIGNING BONUS
1 2 6 Bart, Joey Georgia Tech (GA) C R/R 6′ 3 220lbs DOB: 12/15/96 $7,494,600 $7,025,000
2 45 44 Hjelle, Sean Kentucky (KY) P R/R 6′ 11 225lbs DOB: 05/07/97 $1,587,600 $1,500,000
3 80 72 Wong, Jake Grand Canyon University (AZ) P R/R 6′ 2 215lbs DOB: 09/03/96 $738,700 $850,000
4 106 111 Rivera, Blake Wallace State CC (AL) P R/R 6′ 4 225lbs DOB: 01/09/98 $528,200 $800,000
5 136 Winn, Keaton Iowa Western CC (IA) P R/R 6′ 4 205lbs DOB: 02/20/98 $394,600 $500,000
6 166 Hilson, Patrick Nettleton Senior HS (AR) OF R/R 5′ 11 175lbs DOB: 08/25/00 $295,200 $520,000
7 196 Mora, Edison Puerto Rico Baseball Academy SS R/R 6′ 2 165lbs DOB: 08/13/00 $229,900 $200,000
8 226 Bates, Solomon USC (CA) P R/R 6′ 2 210lbs DOB: 03/16/97 $181,700 $150,000
9 256 Madison, Ben Central Baptist College (AR) P R/R 6′ 3 205lbs DOB: 09/15/97 $154,200 $140,000
10 286 DuBord, Alex Faulkner University (AL) P R/R 6′ 5 225lbs DOB: 12/04/96 $142,800 $75,000

 

Last but certainly not least, we have the San Francisco Giants. They had by far the best draft class in the division as they managed to draft the best hitter in the draft and saved money at the same time.

Best Hitter in the Draft Pick: Joey Bart C, Georgia Tech (Round 1, Pick # 2)

They believe that Bart will be the heir apparent to Buster Posey. He is a franchise centerpiece type of player as a power hitting catcher with a plus hit tool, arm and defense. Ironically they both saved money in regards to slot value and handed out the highest signing bonus to any hitter in history. Typically, pitchers are only selected with these top picks, but Posey worked out pretty good for them and they believe Bart is the same type of player.

Tallest Player in the Draft Pick: Sean Hjelle RHP, Kentucky (Round 2, Pick # 45)

Sean is a ridiculous 6’11” throws a knuckle curve in addition to his plus fastball, slider, and changeup. He works in the low 90s and can hit the mid-90s that play faster due to his massive frame. His above-average command with this four-pitch mix could get him to a ceiling of a #2 Starter.

Overall Grade: A

Getting the best hitter in the draft, and two pitchers that should have a major impact in the Major Leagues (Hjelle and Grand Canyon University RHP, Jake Wong) gets them an A- alone. Saving money to sign all the Top 10 picks in a timely fashion…Priceless.

 


Bryan Luhrs

Major League Fantasy Sports
Writer & Contributor
Real Deal Dynasty Sports
Owner, League Developer & Executive Commissioner

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