New & Noteworthy
There is nothing particularly “new” about the format of this week’s article, but I found two items worth noting while writing this article out:
- ) This week many of the entries are in Duos. This was not an intentional decision but is also one that is likely to repeat depending on the circumstances. As football is a team sport it is hard to talk about players in-depth for too long at all without mentioning their teammates, so it makes sense to me in many cases to tackle two players in one motion. This however also makes some of the Ownership Tiers a bit tricky, and as such they are not as broken up this week.
- ) We can consider this the dawn of the Rookie WR conversation. One of the traditional knocks on Rookie WRs is that they don’t usually produce right away. A few noteworthy rookies are seeing expanded roles and I do believe this is a theme worth exploring these next two weeks on the WW. There are WRs like Christian Kirk, DJ Moore, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and Courtland Sutton out there in many leagues that may not produce results between now and the end of the season, but they are talented players seeing increased roles and that shouldn’t go understated.
Without further ado,
Week 9 Waiver Wire
Slightly Over 50%
Peyton Barber, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The value of Peyton Barber, as perceived heading into the season, was that he may not be the most talented or on the best team, but he did have a sizable role. Ronald Jones put that into question, but that proved short-lived as Barber has come back and reclaimed that role with two of his best outings of the season in his past three games. He is as unexciting as they come, but is also viable as a fantasy asset. Key Statistic: Barber has 43 Carries for 197 Yards (4.58 YPC), and 1 Rushing TD in his last three games. Over this span, Ronald Jones has accumulated 9 Carries for 13 Yards (1.44 YPC) and 1 Rushing TD.
Doug Martin/Jalen Richard, RBs, Oakland Raiders – I don’t have a particular interest in adding either of these backs, at least compared to someone like Aaron Jones. But I do believe in them holding value post-Marshawn Lynch. Martin is likely to get more carries and Richard could manage relevance just with a passing role. I’d favor Martin likely even in PPR, but it is very close in those formats. Key Statistic: This is more about what could be than what is. In 2012 and 2015, Doug Martin eclipsed 1400 yards. Jalen Richard, according to ESPN Stats & Info, was the #2 RB in Yards per Route Run coming into this weekend.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers – Aaron Jones hasn’t gotten a lot of carries yet for the Packers in a game. But in spite of this, I believe he should still be considered one of the more under-owned players at just under-50% in ESPN leagues. Jones shows explosive movement between the tackles and has consistently put up high YPC numbers. The Packers RB is not valuable if the position is split three-ways, but there are scores to be had and no stacked-boxes to fear in Green Bay. I believe Aaron Jones can continue to earn a bigger piece of that pie. Key Statistic: Aaron Jones’ Yards Per Carry in his 5 Games This Season: 7.0, 5.9, 5.7, 5.1, 7.2.
Danny Amendola, DeVante Parker, WRs, Miami Dolphins – Can Amendola stay healthy? This has been and continues to be the question for Amendola. This is also a question about every other Dolphins WR. Stills has been hurt or ineffective for a number of weeks. In Albert Wilson’s big game his average target depth on TDs was probably within 0-2 yards. Parker has never been consistent and is also consistently non-healthy. Amendola, while active, is the safest option of the bunch and likely to continue to produce WR3 type numbers. A riskier, but more available dart throw is DeVante Parker. I stand by the consistency comments, but he is a former first round pick and fills the definition of “Flier” quite nicely. Key Statistic: Amendola’s 5 Receptions and 9.3 PPR Fantasy Points this past weekend were his lowest total in 3 Weeks. Despite never being a consistently relevant player, Parker has had big games. His 100+ Yard Performance was his fourth such career game.
Jack Doyle, TE, Indianapolis Colts – Jack Doyle came back from the injury report in full force grabbing 6 balls for 70 Yards and 1 TD. Luck loves throwing to his TEs and I don’t believe the Ebron rapport has grown to the point where it will affect Doyle’s targets as much as some may expect, especially as Luck has targeted the TE position quite a bit during his career. Key Statistic: Doyle and Allen combined for 94 Receptions, 990 Yards and 11 TDs last time Andrew Luck was QB in 2016. That’s enough to sustain two low-end TE1s, with any majority becoming an above average TE1.
Mike & Tyrell Williams, WRs, Los Angeles Chargers – Mike & Tyrell Williams, while not brothers, are very similar in fantasy value right now. They have some similar reliance on big plays and a similar Ownership%. At this point it would seem Tyrell’s greatest advantage would be time with Rivers whereas Mike has not had the opportunity, but was also drafted in the first round as a presumably large part of the organization’s future. That’s one simple way to look at it. I’m still looking to invest a higher priority on Mike over Tyrell, as I believe he’s more likely to position himself for a bigger role without injury.
Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals – Perhaps it is the lack of a major defining week, but I’m continuously surprised every week at the availability of Christian Kirk. No, he’s not decimating secondaries, but he has seemingly developed what very few rookies do: consistency. Other than in Week 1, Kirk has at least 3 Receptions in every game, and has produced at least 42 Yards in 5 of 7 games including 5 of his last 6. Lean on the Key Statistic for further evidence of Kirk’s relevancy since Week 1. Key Statistic: Ignoring a non-existent Week 1 performance, Christian Kirk is pacing 69 Receptions, 923 Yards, and 4.5 TDs right now, which would be good for 153.8 1/2 PPR Points, or the equivalent of the #24 WR last year.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos – Courtland Sutton still has not gotten the target consistency you would like playing behind DT. My suggestion last week was at least partially based on the idea that the latter factor may change prior to the Trade Deadline. While that is now looking unlikely, the rumors are likely a result of a feeling that Sutton is pushing Thomas for playing time right now. Sutton has incredible size and prior to a late draft slip was a first round considered player. Key Statistic: In 5 Straight Games Courland Sutton has either a TD or a Reception of at least 41 Yards.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, WRs, Green Bay Packers – As ridiculous as it is to even have to make this statement, I will continue to pound the drum for WRs in an Aaron Rodgers system. Even last week when it seemed to be a low volume effort, WRs not named Adams still combined for 9/130/1, or 23.5 points in 1/2 PPR. Cobb is healthier now but I don’t necessarily trust that to continue. Allison struggled last week despite a decent snap total, but I think he’s trusted there. The real potential golden goose is MVS— Marquez Valdes-Scantling. MVS played more snaps and had as many or more targets than any WR not named Davante Adams. In games with a major injury, MVS has played 93 and 95% of snaps. He’s a true budding #2 for Aaron Rodgers.
Trenton Cannon & Elijah McGuire, RBs, New York Jets — Trenton Cannon stepped right into Bilal Powell’s role after his injury in Week 7. In his very first full week, Cannon totaled more snaps than fellow RB Isaiah Crowell. While he didn’t do too much with that action (22 Yards) he still showed that for as long as the backfield remains unchanged, his Carries and Target volume warrant an add for RB-needy teams, particularly with bye weeks. Perhaps more worth keeping an eye on and an add in deeper leagues is RB Elijah McGuire. He had looked good in limited action as the pass catching back in the past, and while Trenton Cannon getting 50+% of the snaps is only mildly interesting, McGuire receiving the same share would be far more intriguing to me and worth a heavy investment. In a deep league I’m looking to get out in front and add Elijah McGuire. While returning from injury and being eligible to do so are not nearly the same, McGuire will be eligible to return to the Jets starting this week.
DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers — Unlike Christian Kirk, who only wasn’t involved in Week 1, D.J. Moore was not an involved member of the Panthers passing attack prior to their Week 4 Bye. Now in 4 games since we’ve seen him average 4 Receptions. While this uptick alone may not immediately make him a fantasy viable WR, if it is the sign of something more to come for 2019’s #1 Drafted WR, now may be the time to strike on waiver wires.
Aaron Jones — Prioritize If: Need RB. Looking for potential impact RB late in season.
Christian Kirk — Prioritize If: Need WR. Looking for a consistent WR3.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling — Prioritize If: MVS’ greatest potential is to be a true #2 for Rodgers. We have seen signs of that. But it is not guaranteed.
Peyton Barber — Prioritize If: Need RB for Immediate Starts. Good player. Not Great. Excellent for Depth.
Danny Amendola — Prioritize If: Need immediate production. I don’t have faith he stays healthy.
Doug Martin — Prioritize If: Both RB Needy and could take a shot on some upside.
Jalen Richard — Prioritize If: PPR favored player.
Mike Williams — Prioritize If: You can afford the risk by either not having to play him often or often having enough so that he won’t have to consistently do much. Role could expand.
DJ Moore — Prioritize If: Looking for a potential late season impact, which could also be establishing a decent floor right now.
Jack Doyle — Prioritize If: You need a TE.
Courland Sutton — Prioritize If: You can afford to see if he can take more snaps from DT. If DT does happen to be injured or traded or otherwise not Active on Gameday, Sutton gets a huge boost.
Tyrell Williams — Prioritize If: Can afford a likely boom or bust nature at best.
Geronimo Allison — Prioritize If: Can afford to wait on some clarity on health and PT situations.
Trenton Cannon — Prioritize If: You need a RB with a role right now, particularly PPR.
Elijah McGuire — Prioritize If: You can afford to wait on that RB and get a better talent for later in the season, particularly PPR. If McGuire does happen to be activated, he climbs this list quite a bit.
Devante Parker — Prioritize If: You can find a way to start him during good games. I never have and maybe that’s part of the reason why I’m not a big Parker believer.