Tyreek Hill @ Oakland – $8,400 FD/$9,100 DK – The Raiders give up 13.9 yards per catch and have gotten burned for 41 plays of 20+ yards and 12 plays of 40+ yards so far this year. Tyreek Hill is arguably the most explosive big play threat in the game and the Chiefs are playing a team that gives up big plays as if that was the design of their defense. The Chiefs are without Kareem Hunt as of Friday night which means the Chiefs may rely more on the passing game if Spencer Ware isn’t effective.
Adam Thielen @ New England – $8,100 FD/$8,000 DK – New England’s stud corner is Stephon Gilmore, they are weak at the slot so this sets up well for Thielen. Thielen figures to see a lot of Jason McCourty this week and that should be a win for Thielen, as McCourty has been very beatable this year.
Robert Woods @ Detroit – $7,300 FD/$6,900 DK – The Lions give up 12.5 yards per catch which is 2nd worst in the NFL and they’ve had 24 passing touchdowns thrown on them which is 2 shy of the NFL worst 26. The Rams play 11 personnel on almost every play and Woods typically lines up in the slot now that Cooper Kupp is out. Nevin Lawson is the Lions slot corner and he’s been a liability most of this year which bodes well for Woods. Moreover, through week 8, Todd Gurley was averaging 25 touches per game, and since, he’s averaged 17 touches per game in theory to keep him fresh for the playoffs. If that’s the case, Woods, Cooks and Reynolds may see more volume in the passing game.
DJ Moore @ Tampa Bay – $6,400 FD/$5,600 DK – The Bucs secondary is banged up and everybody is getting it done against them. They are surrendering 291.5 passing yards per game and have given up 45 plays of 20+ yards. Moore flashed earlier in the season and then kind of disappeared, but lately, he’s really emerged as Cam Newton’s go to guy with Devin Funchess gone. Even with Funchess set to come back this week, Moore should still be the guy that exploits the leaky Bucs secondary.
Mike Evans vs Carolina – $7,900 FD/$8,100 DK – Carolina has been exposed in the passing game lately, giving up 12 passing touchdowns over their last 4 games. Mike Evans is the most likely red zone target for the Bucs in the passing game and it’s likely he scores in this one.
Courtland Sutton @ Cincinnati – $5,400 FD/$4,200 DK – The Bengals are getting blown up for explosive plays, surrendering 45 plays of 20+ yards on the season. Sutton is a boom or bust guy, so he may boom against the Bengals. The Bengals have been surrendering 11.9 yards per catch and over 300 yards passing a game so this one sets up well for Sutton.
Christian Kirk @ Green Bay – $5,700 FD/$4,600 DK – Christian Kirk should see a lot of fellow rookie Jaire Alexander. That which may be problematic for Kirk. But the Cardinals will likely be playing from behind in this one and they will need to put the ball in the air a lot. The Packers have been getting beat through the air, and although Alexander is good, he’s not a lock down corner, and if Kirk can get loose, all he needs is one big play to come through.
Chris Godwin vs Carolina – $5,400 FD/$3,900 DK – The Panthers may be without Donte Jackson this week and if that’s the case, they’re in trouble, because they don’t really have a corner that will be able to run with Godwin deep.
Todd Gurley @ Detroit – $9,800 FD/$9,300 DK – The Lions have been a little better against the run since they acquired Damon Harrison but they are still getting gashed for 4.7 yards a pop and the Rams simply have too many weapons to worry about.
Christian McCaffrey @ Tampa Bay – $8,800 FD/$8,800 DK – The Bucs give up 4.7 yards per carry on the year and when the Panthers and Bucs played earlier this year McCaffrey scored twice on the ground, had 78 yards rushing and 79 yards receiving.
Spencer Ware @ Oakland – $5,200 FD/$4,000 DK – Oakland is terrible. The Raiders get run on over 30 times a game for 4.9 yards per carry and over 150 yards a game. Now that Kareem Hunt is without a team, Ware figures to be the guy. Ware is as cheap as it gets in DFS and the matchup couldn’t be any better. This is a lesson to handcuff certain running backs in season long leagues. Ware was the clear backup to Kareem Hunt and if you are a Hunt owner and didn’t own Ware, you are likely to pay deerly down the stretch.
James Conner vs LA Chargers – $8,200 FD/$7,300 DK – The Chargers play against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football this week. The Chargers will be a different team without Melvin Gordon in the lineup this week and the Steelers secondary matches up extremely well with the Chargers receivers. This game sets up well for the Steelers at home, and James Conner should get heavy volume in this one, against a Chargers defense that gives up 4.4 yards per carry.
Phillip Lindsay @ Cincinnati – $7,000 FD/$5,400 DK – Start running backs against the Bengals, period. It pains me to say it, but similar to the Oakland Raiders, the Bengals have been getting run on over 30 times a game for 4.7 yards per carry and 147.5 yards per game. If you aren’t willing to use Phillip Lindsay this week, then when can you use him.
Theo Riddick vs LA Rams – $5,300 FD/$4,700 DK – On the season the Rams are giving up 5.2 yards per carry which is second worst in the NFL, so although Riddick doesn’t usually get a lot of volume on the ground, when he does get the ball, he’s likely to have success. The Rams should win this game easily, so Riddick should see heavy volume in the passing game as the Lions are struggling to replace Golden Tate’s production in the passing game.
Lamar Miller vs Cleveland – $6,300 FD/$4,600 DK – Lamar Miller is capable of popping off big runs as we saw last week. The Browns have been giving up a putrid 4.8 yards per carry which is near worst in the league. Teams are also running the ball with steady volume against the Browns, 27.6 times per game, so this one sets up well for Miller to at least come through with a decent day.
Jalen Richard vs Kansas City – $4,800 FD/$4,300 DK – The Chiefs have given up the most fantasy points to running backs on the season, and lately, they have surrendered a lot of catches and receiving yards to running backs. In week 11 they gave up 3 for 39 to Todd Gurley, in week 10 they gave up 7 for 85 and a TD to David Johnson, and in week 9 Duke Johnson caught 9 for 78 and 2 touchdowns. Even with Kareem Hunt gone, the Chiefs should win this game handily which means Richard should get plenty of check downs in the passing game.
TJ Yeldon vs Indianapolis – $4,800 FD/$4,400 DK – The Colts are pretty solid against the run giving up only 4.0 yards per carry and just 106.4 yards on the ground per game, so this sets up well for TJ Yeldon to get a lot of check downs in the passing game from Cody Kessler.
I don’t know if you can rely on Kenyan Drake ($6,200 on FD and $4,600 on DK) with his shoulder issue. Last week he came out of the game, briefly, because he aggravated it but he came back. Initially, it looked like he suffered a season ending injury but he came back so I guess he’s good to play through some pain. I like Drake a lot against Buffalo, but given his lingering shoulder issue, I just don’t know if you can trust him to pull through the entire game. I may roll him out there in some lineups this week but if I do, it will be a gut decision, not a logical one.
It seems as if Jordan Howard’s production has hit rock bottom over the last few weeks, but if there’s any time to hope, it may be this week. The Giants have been getting gashed on the ground since they traded Snacks Harrison away to the Lions. Last week, the Giants gave up 84 yards and a touchdown to Josh Adams and another 45 yards on the ground to Corey Clement. The week prior, they gave up 106 yards and a touchdown to Peyton Barber, the week before that 101 and 1 TD to Matt Breida, and back in week 8 they gave up 149 carries and a TD to the ageless Adrian Peterson. Howard could bust loose for a few and come through, but it’s hard to recommend him with any confidence based on his last few performances. When he takes the ball from the QB out of the shotgun, it looks like he can’t get going as well, it looks like he’s not really running down hill, it just doesn’t look right when he’s in the game playing out of shotgun.