Connect with us

Baseball Writers

“That’s Amore!” Trey Mancini: The Brightest Oriole Out There

2018 saw them finished dead last in the American League East for a second consecutive season. Not only was it a second-straight season finishing fifth in the division, but they finished with a MLB-worst 115 losses. This season has been anything but a hot start as Chris Davis finally ended an MLB-record 54 at-bat hitless streak. Simply put, it’s going to be a long season for the Orioles. While last season’s late trade acquisition Jonathan Villar has been a bright spot, no other player has made a bigger impact than Trey Mancini. Coming off a solid 2017 rookie season that saw him slash .293/.338/.488 with 24 home runs and 78 RBI, the former Notre Dame standout had a sophomore season that saw pitchers make adjustments each at-bat causing a dip in Mancini’s average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. However, he did finish posting a second-straight season with 24 home runs. This season, Mancini has gotten off to one of the hottest starts in baseball, and has been a phenomenal mid-to-late round draft pick. or early waiver wire acquisition. This week, I want to breakdown Mancini’s adjustments, and success, in “That’s Amore!” Trey Mancini: The Brightest Oriole Out There.

Early on, Mancini has been a solid source of production from a multi-eligibility (OF-1B) player. Entering Sunday, Mancini has six home runs (T-4th), 12 RBI (T-9th), .373 ISO (12th), .339 average (T-20th), and .451 wOBA (14th). His splits have been equally impressive slashing .300/.333/.700 and .359/.422/.718 against lefties and righties respectively. One split I’d like to see him improve on are his home/away splits. There’s no question Camden Yards is a hitter friendly ballpark, yet Mancini is slashing .259/.355/.630 at home and .406/.429/.781 on the road. He’s at nearly the same amount of at-bats (27/32) at home as he has away. One thing that is a bit head-scratching is the fact that in 2017 he hit better on the road than at home, but the opposite in 2018.

Looking at Mancini’s three-year stat line, one thing that immediately sticks out is the increase in strikeouts, and K%, from 2017-2018. This is something I’m not surprised at as pitchers had a better scouting report on Mancini and were able to pitch each at-bat into their favor. Add in his tendencies, and it’s easy to see why pitchers tend to have an upper-hand in a player’s second season. This season, I like the fact that not only is Mancini sitting a career-low in K% (22.1%), but his 9.1 BB% is a career-high. While he’s still had a tendency of getting behind in the count, he still manages to be successful in counts favoring pitchers.

Another adjustment I’ve liked from Mancini is his GB%. 2018 saw an increase in overall ground ball percentage by 3.6%, but this season that rate has declined  7.9%. A player like Mancini, that offers little speed, needs to do his best to keep the ball off the ground. Power is his modus operandi, and hitting ground balls is a no-no for such a hitter. Looking at his batted ball types, his Soft% has decreased 2.5% (17.8% is a career-best), his Med% has increased 0.6% (46.7% is also a career-best), and his Hard% has increased 2.0% (again, a career-best at 35.6%). He’s simply made solid contact, and he’s not getting cheated when he makes contact. One thing that does concern me is his Pull% and Oppo%. His Pull% is at a career-high 48.9% while his Oppo% is a career-low 15.6%. As pitchers adjust, and pitchers become sharper, Mancini will absolutely need to use the entire ballpark if he wants to see this production last throughout the season. Again, the Orioles are one of the worst baseball teams in MLB, and there will be many times when he comes up to bat with no one on base.

Finally, some of the most significant adjustments, that’s led to Mancini’s rebound, are in his overall O-Swing%, O-Contact%, F-Strike%, and SwStr%. Mancini has decreased his swings at pitches outside the zone and increased his contact percentage on swings at pitches outside the zone. A lot of this plays into Mancini’s overall development at the plate. His plate discipline has gotten better, and his overall understanding of pitch count has grown. This has led to the decrease of 1.9% in SwStr%. Looking deeper, one stat I love to see a decrease in his first pitch strike percentage. Last season, nearly 62% of his at-bats started with a strike, and this season he’s seen a dramatic decrease to 56.1%. It’s tough being successful when pitchers get ahead early, and Mancini’s done a great job of lowering this percentage.

Overall, Mancini has made a rebound since a dip in his 2018 numbers after a stellar rookie season. Again, I’d love to see his numbers increase at home, as well as his opposite-field usage. I do believe, over time, he’ll start using the opposite field more, and if he doesn’t he will most certainly hit a rough patch. Seeing how often he pulls the ball, pitchers will be more inclined to pitch him more off the plate as well as on the outside part of the plate. It will be up to him not only to lay off pitches off the plate, but be willing to shoot balls to right field. Still, Mancini’s hot start has been great for fantasy owners, and he’s undoubtedly one of the best mid-to-late round picks and waiver wire additions in the early going of the 2019 season.


Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join host Brian Roach, Jr, and Cole Freel live on Sunday April 7th, 2019 from 8pm-9:30pm EST for episode #150 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. You can listen live on blogtalk, majorleaguefantasysports.com, or download the podcast on I-Tunes or any Android podcast app. We will discuss spot starters for the coming week, plus a weekend update, and look ahead to next week.

Our guest this week is Bryan Luhrs. Bryan has been a writer with majorleaguefantasysports.com for 6 years, and is the owner of Real Deal Dynasty Sports.

Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join host Brian Roach, Jr, and Cole Freel live on Sunday April 14th, 2019 from 8pm-9:30pm EST for episode #151 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. You can listen live on blogtalk, majorleaguefantasysports.com, or download the podcast on I-Tunes or any Android podcast app. We will discuss spot starters for the coming week, plus a weekend update, and look ahead to next week.

Our guest this week is Kevin Bzdek. Kevin is a writer, editor, and league mate at majorleaguefantasysports.com.

Fantasy Football 2019 League Openings: What do you want? Competition or Boredom?

I'm a former collegiate and semi-pro baseball player. I underwent successful Tommy John Surgery in 2008, and can give a wide-range of tips on the surgery and rehabilitation. Chicago sports are the love of my life [Cubs, Bears, Blackhawks, Bulls] as well as Serie A football [Forza Rossoneri!]. 2018 will be my fourth writing for Major League Fantasy Sports, and each season gets better than the previous. 2016 was very emotional for Cubs fans alike. After 108 years, they finally scaled the mountaintop! "Baseball been berry, berry good to me!"

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Help Support Our Growth!

Major League Fantasy Baseball Show Episode #167, 6/23/2019 Host Brian Roach, Jr., Co-Host Cole Freel, Guest Kevin Bzdek

Major League Fantasy Baseball Show Episode #169, 8/4/2019 Host Cole Freel, Guest Joe Iannone

Radio Show Feed

Blog Authors

avatar for Ben WardiBen Wardi

I am a recent college graduate from a small liberal arts school in Atlanta, GA. I'm a sports junkie and a diehard Atlanta sports fan.

avatar for Brandon ZimanBrandon Ziman

Grew up playing baseball since I could hold a bat. Played baseball through high school and college. Somehow became a Yankee fan even though I ...

avatar for Brian Roach, JrBrian Roach, Jr

Baseball fan through and through. Follows every team, every player and every transaction. Graduated Lasell College in 2013. Covers high sc...

avatar for Bryan LuhrsBryan Luhrs

Faith, Family and Fantasy Sports.These are the three words that best describe me. I am a faithful husband and father of 6 amazing children. I ...

avatar for Cole FreelCole Freel

Bachelors in English and History from Indiana University. Borderline-Obsessed Fantasy Baseball Writer who also dabbles in Football, Basketball...

avatar for Corey D RobertsCorey D Roberts

Owner and creator of Major League Fantasy Sports. We will provide you with the best tools to be successful in your leagues no matter if ...

avatar for Geordie EasterbrookGeordie Easterbrook

I’m a former pitcher from upstate New York, and a proud Demon Deacon. Go Deacs! I’ve been playing fantasy football and baseball for the be...

avatar for James WilkJames Wilk

I grew up a Dallas Cowboy's fan in Washington Redskins' country, but I currently reside in Florida. I have played fantasy sports since 1999,...

avatar for Joe IannoneJoe Iannone

I'm an accountant and an amateur writer of fiction and sports commentary, mostly baseball. I've been a student of the game of baseball since...

avatar for John GozziJohn Gozzi

Intense sports lover . a writer who specializes in creative non- fiction almost always challenging the status quo. I've suffered but rema...

avatar for Josh HoukJosh Houk

Certified Sports Fanatic: Everything Cleveland sports and all the happenings around classic sports. Full time program manager in construc...

avatar for Kevin BzdekKevin Bzdek

I've been playing fantasy baseball for 14 years. I am also an auditor and CPA, where I analyze information on a daily basis. Combined, my pas...

avatar for Kyle AmoreKyle Amore

I'm a former collegiate and semi-pro baseball player. I underwent successful Tommy John Surgery in 2008, and can give a wide-range of tips on...

avatar for Mark RushMark Rush

Unrepentant Red Sox fan and all things Boston. Deflategate was a joke. Boston Latin School is awesome. Harvard and Johns Hopkins alma mater...

avatar for Matt BarkmanMatt Barkman

A/S/L...like the old school AOL instant messenger days...
31/M/PA
Elementary Physical Education by day, chasing around my 1 and 2 year old boy...

avatar for Mike RiggallMike Riggall

I've been coaching lacrosse since 2002 and playing fantasy football since 2006. I've racked up several championships over the years includi...

avatar for Nick GehlbachNick Gehlbach

Husband and father of three. Have a love of all things baseball. When not burying myself in baseball (especially fantasy) I enjoy fish...

avatar for Todd NevinTodd Nevin

A business analyst by day, pursuing all things baseball by night. My favorite day of the year is opening day and my favorite sound is the crac...

@brandonziman You are more than welcome Brandon. You were a fantastic writer and a joy to work with. As we move through a very big transition for us hopefully we can continue to work with one anither.

About 2 months ago from Corey Roberts's Twitter via Twitter for Android

Help Support Our Growth!

More in Baseball Writers